Intelligent system for modelling climate variability
https://doi.org/10.21822/2073-6185-2020-47-2-30-39
Abstract
Aim. The study describes a prototype of an intelligent system for modelling climate variability based on a database of multi-year series and historical evidence. The presented intelligent system allows climate events to be simulated as follows: one phenomenon at one point; one phenomenon in space; many phenomena at one point and many phenomena in space. Methods. The choice of research methods was determined by the properties of source information and its volume: a series of observations over a long period, sampling over a short period, historical and archival materials, etc. Results. The article describes the main functions of the presented intelligent system, which expand the possibility of assessing the variability of climate characteristics by combining quantitative and qualitative information in the form of historical and archival evidence. The main functions of the system include the generation of event flows; estimation of the event probability; physical reconstruction of data using geoinformation systems; determination of the period between two rare events; and management of agricultural production under risk conditions. Conclusion. The advantage of the proposed system consists in increasing information about extreme events and improving the management efficiency by means of reducing risks.
About the Authors
P. G. Asalkhanov
A.A. Ezhevsky Irkutsk State Agrarian University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Peter G. Asalkhanov - Cand. Sci. (Technical), Ass. Prof., Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling.
1/1 Str., Irkutsk region, Molodezhny village 664038.
N. V. Bendik
A.A. Ezhevsky Irkutsk State Agrarian University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nadezhda V. Bendik - Cand. Sci. (Technical), Ass. Prof., Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling.
1/1 Str., Irkutsk region, Molodezhny village 664038.
Ya. M. Ivanyo
A.A. Ezhevsky Irkutsk State Agrarian University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yaroslav M. Ivan'o - Dr. Sci. (Technical), Prof., Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling.
1/1 Str., Irkutsk region, Molodezhny village 664038.
References
1. P.G. Asalkhanov, N.V. Bendik, and Ya.M. Ivanyo, “Management of the agro-industrial enterprise: optimization, uncertainty, expert assessments”, in International Multi-Conference on Industrial Engineering and Modern Technologies 2019 (FarEastCon 2019), 1-4 October 2019.
2. E.P. Borisenkov and V.M. Pasetskiy. “Extreme natural phenomena in Russian chronicles of the XI-XVII centuries”. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1983, 240 p [“Ekstremal'nyye prirodnyye yavleniya v russkikh letopisyakh XI-XVII vv.”, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1983, 240 p(In Russ)].
3. M.I. Budyko, G.S. Golitsyn, and Yu.A. Israel, “Global Climate Disasters”, Moscow: Gidrometeoizdat, 1986, 159 p [“Global'nyye klimaticheskiye katastrofy”, Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1986, 159 p] (In Russian).
4. V.I. Vasil'ev and B.G. Il'jasov, “Intellectual control systems. The theory and practice: the manual”, The radio engineering, Moscow: 2009, 392 p [“Intellektual'nyye sistemy upravleniya. Teoriya i praktika: uchebnoye posobiye”, Radiotekhnika, Moscow, 2009, 392 p.(In Russ)].
5. E.V. Vashukevich, and Y.M. Ivanyo, “Mathematical models of agricultural production with probabilistic characteristics of droughts and hydrological events”, Irkutsk: Publishing House of the Irkutsk State Agricultural Academy, 2012, 150 p [“Matematicheskiye modeli agrarnogo proizvodstva s veroyatnostnymi kharakteristikami zasukh i gidrologicheskikh sobytiy”, Irkutsk: Izd-vo IrGSKHA, 2012, 150 p. (In Russ)].
6. I.P. Druzhinin, V.R. Smaga, and A.N. Chevnin, “Dynamics of long-term fluctuations of river flow”, Moscow: Nauka, 1991, 176 p [“Dinamika mnogoletnikh kolebaniy rechnogo stoka”, Moscow: Nauka, 1991, 176 p. (In Russ)].
7. D. Dursun and Sh. Ramesh, “Artificial Neural Networks in Decision Support Systems”, in Handbook on Decision Support Systems, SpringerVerlag, 2008, pp 557-580.
8. Ya.M. Ivanyo, “Information on extreme natural phenomena in the management of production facilities”, Scientific and practical journal “Bulletin of the Irkutsk State Agricultural Academy”. Irkutsk: IRGSHA, 2010, №. 39, pp. 4953 [“Informatsiya ob ekstremal'nykh prirodnykh yavleniyakh v upravlenii proizvodstvennymi ob'yektami”, Nauchno-prakticheskiy zhurnal “Vestnik IrGSKHA”, Irkutsk: IrGSKHA, 2010, № 39, pp. 49-53] (In Russian).
9. Ya.M. Ivanyo and N.V. Starkova, “Model of formation of a database about the extreme phenomen on the basis of the hydrometeorological and historical-archival information”, in The 11th International Workshop on Computer Science and Informatio Technologies (CSIT'2009), Crete, Greece, 2009, pp. 187-191.
10. Ya.M. Ivanyo and N.V. Starkova, “Modeling of natural events for the management of regional national economic objects”, Irkutsk: Publishing House of the Irkutsk State Agricultural Academy, 2011, 160 p [“Modelirovaniye prirodnykh sobytiy dlya upravleniya regional'nymi narodno-khozyaystvennymi ob'yektami”, Irkutsk: Izd-vo IrGSKHA, 2011, 160 p. (In Russ)].
11. Ya.M. Ivanyo, “Extreme natural phenomena: methodology, modeling and forecasting”, Irkutsk: Publishing House of the Irkutsk State Agricultural Academy, 2007, 266 p [“Ekstremal'nyye prirodnyye yavleniya: metodologiya, modelirovaniye i prognozirovaniye”, Irkutsk: Izd-vo IrGSKHA, 2007, 266 p. (In Russ.)].
12. Ya.M. Ivanyo, “Extreme natural phenomena of the historical past in the territory of the Irkutsk region”, Irkutsk: Publishing house Irkut. University, 1997, 96 p [“Ekstremal'nyye prirodnyye yavleniya istoricheskogo proshlogo na territorii Irkutskoy oblasti”, Irkutsk: Izd-vo Irkut. un-ta, 1997, 96 p. (In Russ)].
13. G.P. Kalinin and Z.I. Darman, “The calculation of the frequency of hydrological phenomena based on the analysis of their formation”, Meteorology and Hydrology, 1953, № 1, pp. 46-50 [“Raschet povtoryayemosti gidro-logicheskikh yavleniy na osnove analiza ikh formirovaniya”, Meteorologiya i gidrologiya, 1953, № 1, pp. 46-50. (In Russ)].
14. A.V. Klimenko, A.V. Bobrjakov, and M.M. Zernov, “The Basic classes of fuzzy models and kinds of knowledge used in them”, Magazine "Neurocomputers", № 8, 2011, pp. 10-17 [“Osnovnyye klassy nechetkikh modeley i ispol'zuyemyye v nikh vidy znaniy”, Zhurnal «Neyrokomp'yutery», № 8, 2011, pp. 10-17.(In Russ)].
15. A.N. Krenke, M.I. Chernavskaya, and R. Brezdil, “European climate variability in the historical past”, Moscow: Nauka, 1995, 224 p [“Izmenchivost' klimata Yevropy v istoricheskom proshlom”, Moskva, Nauka, 1995, 224 p. (In Russ)].
16. L.K. Kremer, “Microclimatic laws”, Natural regimes and topographic systems of the Angara taiga, Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1975, pp. 71-108 [Prirodnyye rezhimy i topogeosistemy Priangarskoy taygi. - Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1975, pp. 71-108. (In Russ)].
17. S.N. Kritsky, M.F. Menkel, “Hydrological basics of river flow management”, Moscow: Nauka, 1981, 255 p [“Gidrologicheskiye osnovy upravleniya rechnym stokom”, Moscow: Nauka, 1981, 255 p] (In Russian).
18. L.V. Kurzaeva, “On the relevance of developing a knowledge base of an intellectual system for supporting the management of requirements for the learning outcomes of IT specialists”, Basic Research, 2016, №. 12-3, pp. 513-517 [“K voprosu ob aktual'nosti razrabotki bazy znaniy intellektual'noy sistemy podderzhki upravleniya trebovaniyami k rezul'ta-tam obucheniya IT-spetsialistov”, Fundamental'nyye issledovaniya, 2016, №. 12-3, pp. 513-517. (In Russ)].
19. K. Mardia, “Statistical analysis of angular observations”, Moscow: Nauka, 1978, 239 p [“Statisticheskiy analiz uglovykh nablyudeniy”, Moscow: Nauka, 1978, 239 p. (In Russ)].
20. L.V. Massel, A.G. Massel, “Technologies and tools for intelligent support of decision-making in extreme situations in energy”, Computational Technologies, Vol. 18, №. S1, 2013, pp. 37-44.
21. Ya.M. Ivanyo and S.A. Petrova, “Optimization models of agricultural production in solving the problems of assessing natural and technological risks. Monograph”, Irkutsk: Publishing house of the Irkutsk State Agrarian University, 2015, 180 p [“Optimizatsionnyye modeli agrarnogo proizvodstva v reshenii zadach otsenki prirodnykh i tekhnogennykh riskov. Monografiya”, Irkutsk: Izd-vo Irkutskogo GAU, 2015, 180 p] (In Russian).
22. Yu.L Rauner, “The dynamics of the extremes of humidification over the historical period”, Izv. USSR Academy of Sciences Ser. geo, 1981, № 6, pp. 5-22 [“Dinamika ekstremumov uvlazhneniya za istoricheskiy period”, Izv. AN SSSR Ser. geogr. 1981, № 6, pp. 5-22 . (In Russ)].
23. S.V. Smirnov, “Ontological analysis of subject areas of modeling”, Bulletin of the Samara Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2001, vol. 3, № 1, pp. 62-70 [“Ontologicheskiy analiz predmetnykh oblastey modeliro-vaniya/ S.V. Smirnov”, Izvestiya Samarskogo nauchnogo tsentra RAN, 2001, vol. 3, № 1, pp. 62-70] (In Russ)].
24. “SNiP 2.01.14-83. Determination of calculated hydrological characteristics”, Moscow: Stroyizdat, 1985, 36 p [“SNiP 2.01.14-83. Opredeleniye raschetnykh gidrologicheskikh kharakteristik”, Moscow: Stroyizdat, 1985, 36 p] (In Russ.)].
25. “SNiP 2.06.15-85. Engineering protection of the territory from flooding and flooding”, Gosstroy of the USSR, Moscow: TsITP Gosstroy of the USSR, 1986, 20 p [“SNiP 2.06.15-85. Inzhenernaya zashchita territorii ot zatopleniya i podtopleniya”, Gosstroy SSSR, Moscow: TSITP Gosstroya SSSR, 1986. 20 p. (In Russ)].
26. N.V. Starkova, “Information and knowledge base about extreme natural phenomena”, Proceedings of the XII Baikal All-Russian Conference “Information and Mathematical Technologies in Science and Management”, Irkutsk: ISEM SB RAS, 2007, № 3, pp. 100-105 [“Informatsiya i baza znaniy ob ekstremal'nykh prirodnykh yavleniyakh, Trudy XII Baykal'skoy Vserossiyskoy konferentsii “Informatsionnyye i matematicheskiye tekhnologii v nauke i upravlenii”, Irkutsk, ISEM SO RAN, 2007, № 3, pp. 100-105 (In Russ)].
27. C. Stylios, V. Reppa, and P. Groumpos, “Knowledge based decision support system for flood risk assessment”, in The 11th International Workshop on Computer Science and Information Technologies (CSIT'2009), Crete, Greece, 2009, pp. 7-12.
Review
For citations:
Asalkhanov P.G., Bendik N.V., Ivanyo Ya.M. Intelligent system for modelling climate variability. Herald of Dagestan State Technical University. Technical Sciences. 2020;47(2):30-39. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21822/2073-6185-2020-47-2-30-39
Views:
527
Email this article 
