EVALUATION OF SUBSOIL MASSIF STABILITY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IRREGULARITY OF CONSTITUENT ROCKS ON THE BASIS OF A RANDOM SIZE AND FUNCTION MODEL

Objectives. This article considers issues involved in the development and continued improvement of computing methods for the study of the causes of landslides. Methods .The existing deterministic assessment approach to stability assessment contains an element of uncertainty. A mass stability forecast, accomplished by means of a complex account of the impact on the variation of its input parameters generally on the basis of modelled random variables, or, in cases where information on the status of the massif at different times is present, a random function model, is proposed. The use of the random function model when solving the problem of forecasting the stability of the massif enables the evaluation of such important parameters of the safe development of the landslide process as probability of occurrence, i.e. the decrease below the permissible level of the safety coefficient, and the time period of development, so as to maintain the safety status of the massif.A method for determining the cost of maintaining the necessary stability or reliability coefficient value at a time when their calculated values are less than the respective permissible values is shown. Results. The implementation of measures to ensure the stability of the ground massif are associated with certain costs, and, in the case of a landslide, with additional losses incurred as a consequence. The cost of activities and the likelihood of loss are functional stability factors. The arrived-at expression determines the optimal massif stability coefficient value, which will correspond with the minimum total cost of the exercise and with additional losses in the event of a landslide. Conclusion.The calculations have shown that the stability of a massif and safety parameters (loss of stability in the absence of time and probability) depend on the structure and characteristics of the constituent rocks of the massif. 

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