Asymmetric S-curves for predicting the dynamics of new technology diffusion
https://doi.org/10.21822/2073-6185-2025-52-3-86-94
Abstract
Objective. The objective of the study is to develop a new method for calculating the dynamics of new technology diffusion using asymmetric s-curves that takes into account the interaction and exchange of information on the success of new technology implementation between active and potential users of the new technology.
Method. The methods of mathematical analysis and probability theory are used, a new mathematical apparatus is developed based on recurrent calculation methods, the calculation results are confirmed by a simulation model. The performance of the developed methods is assessed by comparing the predicted values with real data on the dynamics of new technology diffusion.
Result. The paper assesses the accuracy of the forecast, and also analyzes the required relationship between the volume of analyzed data and the accuracy of the forecast for the growth in the share of active users. The proposed method also allows us to estimate the intensity of interaction between consumers of the new technology.
Conclusion. The results obtained can be used to improve the accuracy of forecasting the dynamics of new technology implementation on the market. This is achieved through the use of recurrent equations designed to calculate the coefficient reflecting the intensity of interaction between users. The use of these equations allows for a more detailed assessment of the impact of interpersonal relationships on the diffusion of innovations.
About the Authors
A. V. Mandrik
Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anton V. Mandrik - Senior Lecturer, Higher School of Project Activity and Industrial Innovation, Institute of Mechanical Engineering, Materials, and Transport.
129 Politekhnicheskaya St., Building B, St. Petersburg 195251
A. S. Glukhanov
St. Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander S. Glukhanov - Сand. Sci. (Eng.), Assoc. Prof., Assoc. Prof., Department of Technosphere Safety.
2 4 2-ya Krasnoarmeyskaya St., St. Petersburg 190005
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Review
For citations:
Mandrik A.V., Glukhanov A.S. Asymmetric S-curves for predicting the dynamics of new technology diffusion. Herald of Dagestan State Technical University. Technical Sciences. 2025;52(3):86-94. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21822/2073-6185-2025-52-3-86-94
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