Features of mathematical modeling of road safety on highways
https://doi.org/10.21822/2073-6185-2024-51-1-61-67
Abstract
Objective. The purpose of the work is to apply mathematical modeling methods to solve problems of ensuring road safety on highways.
Method. Quantitative methods for analyzing road safety problems (BDD) are based on probability theory, mathematical statistics, information theory, multifactor analysis, reliability theory, modeling, programming and other mathematical methods.
Result. The main trends in the study of road safety problems are considered. It is indicated that the mathematical dependences of the influence of a limited number of factors are unsuitable for a satisfactory description of the “driver-vehicle-road-environment” (VADS) system as a whole. Paying attention to the uncertainty of objects, properties and connections of the VADS system, the need to use a systematic approach in solving these problems is justified. The need to take into account regional conditions in road safety is discussed. Mathematical models recommended for solving problems of ensuring road safety are presented.
Conclusion. Generalization, systematization of the vast empirical material of road accidents accumulated as a result of specific studies taking into account economic, social and demographic conditions and the development of theoretical concepts based on system representations are the most important conditions for solving the problems of ensuring road safety.
About the Authors
R. V. Guseinov
Daghestan State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rasul V. Guseinov Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof., Prof., Department of Organization and Traffic Safety
70 I. Shamil Ave., Makhachkala 367026, Russia
P. A. Dadaeva
Daghestan State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Patimat A. Dadaeva, Postgraduate student, Department of Organization and Traffic Safety
70 I. Shamil Ave., Makhachkala 367026, Russia
M. M. Shabazov
Daghestan State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Marat M. Shabazov, Postgraduate student, Department of Organization and Traffic Safety
70 I. Shamil Ave., Makhachkala 367026, Russia
M. T. Mutalibov
Daghestan State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Magomedsalikh T. Mutalibov, Postgraduate student, Department of organization and traffic safety
70 I. Shamil Ave., Makhachkala 367026, Russia
M. R. Akhmedova
Kuban State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Milena R. Akhmedova, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Assoc. Prof., Assoc. Prof., Department of World Economy and Management
149 Stavropol St., Krasnodar 350040, Russia
References
1. https://www.ng.ru/economics/2023-03-15/4_8680_cars.html-Access date 24.10.2023. (In Russ)
2. https://news.un.org/ru/story/2021/10/1412732 – Access date 24.10.2023. (In Russ).
3. Prokhorov B.B., Shmakov D.I. Assessment the cost of statistical life and economic damage from health losses. Problems of forecasting. 2002; 3:125-135. (In Russ).
4. Prokhorov B.B., Shmakov D.I. Causes of death in peacetime and the economic cost of losses. Problems of forecasting. 2013; 4 (139):139-147. (In Russ).
5. Bykov A.A. On the methodology of economic assessment of the life of an average person (explanatory note). Problems of risk analysis. 2007; 49 (2):178-191. (In Russ).
6. https://bezdtp.ru/bezdtp/ru/events/o_48953. Access date 24.10.2023. (In Russ).
7. Stepchenkov A.V. Analysis of the main factors affecting road safety. Science without Borders.2016;3:24-28. (In Russ).
8. Ambartsumyan V.V. Organization of road transport and road safety. Textbook for universities. -Yerevan: Luys, 1980:420.
9. Yakupova G.A. Improving road safety on the basis of a systematic approach using modern methods and models: Abstract of the Dissert. of the Cand. of Technical Scie.: 05.22.10/Gulnara Anvarovna Yakupova – Kazan, 2021:19.
10. Adams J.G.U. Risk and Freedom: the Record of Road Safety Regulation. Cardiff: Transportation Publishing Projects, 1985: 202. (In Russ).
11. Abellan J., Lopez G., de Ona J. Analysis of traffic accident severity using decision rules via decision trees. Expert Systems with Applications, 2013; 40(15):6047–6054.
12. Davydovsky A.G., Linnik A.M. System analysis and mathematical modeling of traffic accidents in a megapolis. System analysis and applied informatics. Minsk, 2019;1:4-7.
13. Ataev P.G., Geller R.M., Lipatkin D.V. Methodology for analyzing road accidents with victims on the example of St. Petersburg. Transport of the Russian Federation. 20195(84):50-55.
14. Matrosova L. D., Semenov E. Yu. Forecasting road safety indicators based on statistical analysis .Central Russian Bulletin of Social Sciences. 2016;11(3):55–60
15. Blinkin M.Ya. Road safety: background, international experience, basic institutions. Moscow: Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics, 2013. 240 p.
16. Koornstra M. J. Prediction of traffic fatalities and prospects for mobility becoming sustainable safe. Sadhana, 2007; 32: 365–395.
17. Elvik R. A review of game-theoretic models of road user behavior. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2014;. 62: 388–396.
18. Reinfurt D.W., Stewart J.R., Weaver N.L. The economy as a factor in motor vehicle fatalities, suicides and homicides. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1991; 23: 453–462.
19. Wagenaar A.C. Effects of macroeconomic conditions on the incidence of motor vehicle accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1984; 16: 191-205.
20. Petrov A.I., Kolesov V.I. Road traffic accidents in Russia: the main socio-economic factors of its formation and spatio-temporal features. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast. 2021;14(1):199-220. (In Russ).
21. Evans L. Traffic Safety. Bloomfield, Mich.: Science Serving Society, 2004;457.
Review
For citations:
Guseinov R.V., Dadaeva P.A., Shabazov M.M., Mutalibov M.T., Akhmedova M.R. Features of mathematical modeling of road safety on highways. Herald of Dagestan State Technical University. Technical Sciences. 2024;51(1):61-67. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21822/2073-6185-2024-51-1-61-67
Views:
252
Email this article 
